them
are these
well
E
%uh
do
I'm gonna take seriously this this the
the title will give nations in the 21st century
and enter and tell you what they arrested the 21st century
is gonna look like a so the place to start is with the
second half for the for the 20th century which was a remarkable
time for 44 economics are
in the main event today that 50-year period were
the continue steady growth in the US and the UK which is where the Industrial
Revolution began
the and the growth miracles after the war
the in Germany Japan and southern Europe
will show you pictures second in in the third inning we didn't
increasingly more I'm important to what's happening in the current
century is that in the fifties and sixties really into the European
colonial age
so-so so its as usual billion two people who were
bed basically a nine European
people's governing governed by European
colonialists be became
three countries the I'm free from the europeans are free from their own their
leaders necessarily
the initiation numbers based on GDP
in in various parts of the world they're all do the
year Lee to economic historian guess medicine
room you should be curio
were im over asians
a really successful countries up and I can put a little went in there too with
with
you've already got too many too many curves are on this thing
see they would put its own to Denmark in
Finland in getting my picture beginning you know well you
you get to you the US the UK were you you know who you are
in world the all the europeans did the bottom
here which BB came curious about
you get only he wrote this poem not always going to be talking about levels
week you're about to enter zip you human meal
living standards we care about their about him the production per person
in a society is the in growth rate seriously because they keep you
from one level production per person to another
that Siri its surety children
line and yeah
the period me seventy you little
you years-long companies you up soon could be
would me
and
some countries share be there are there other services
selling bad to me okay has earned
I'll talk to ya whisper some some some countries did did did did better than
others
are additional real compression here wasn't very much
doing a lot of barriers to trade in these countries alarm for
you know into a liberal are
policies the only carrier is really gaining impressively issued during this
period is Japan
in japan this is a period where the rest in the Asia
was not growing at all so all this moving from China
and even from Japan's leading arrested Asia and and and not to mention Africa
the high
then you see the year the %um
blasted World War or two and it's easy to see who the losers in who the winners
are
are in there what happened afterwards
is this it can very rapid
compression %uh the %uh the
the losers in the war where the southern Europeans we have always been
had always been backward relative to the rest if your there they all rapidly
converge to
something you look like you're all going to converge to the blacker which is the
United States
but the but they didn't quite do there there's a discernible
gap about forty percent between the best to the successful countries
a here here that most productive nursery the best
in the others for but the
in between 1950 1970 here this tremendous compression
in who why did this happen a huge factor was just
freedom democracy another factor which free trade the European Common Market
with a fabulous see huge improvement over where Europe which ran in the first
part of this century
and it was not it was not a a
alliance against North Americans who were Japanese
they didn't raised fears against us either so the whole
year every country in this movie here is in a single
basically free trade zone in in
him near all sure more less capitalist economies
which is assisting is a purely capitalist economy there
he is he would happen did this happen at the expense
I'll love the UK in the US
not at all we need to just parallel the growth rate it's
I call a two percent but IDs RR
are go for 1.85 if you like ruling this trend growth is shared by all the
successful economies
something like it on as your way forget within the next like
in okay yeah so this this this 2 percent growth rate
are we started out as a
english-speaking thing centuries ago
is is now shared by more and more countries and more and more countries
join an
in a nor'easter
latter can you grown faster than we have Barclays have never grown
sustained refashion 2 percent so it kinda numbers you're seeing a huge we've
seen Asia nursing now in China
there's nothing like that ever happened in the UK in the United States in
nothing like that ever will happen
my swing you know destroy our economy and lead
come back up are soon return
our to that was mostly European picture to show you
let's have a look at Asia hey this is Jade
up I'm I'm I like a log logarithms
with this is a a natural imitated on this tax issue God
a are this is five thousand
are US in nineteen ninety dollars
is this where this five means yeah that's the the the a large
GDP per person so the family of four's gonna be four times at
analysts we're and here and he any course this isn't a calm pay this is
total production so the government stake in large parts in every country and
larger in some than others
so here we begin begin with China
other ed the mainland Chinese here
this should be like five hundred foreigner dollars
would be for person and we're gonna end up
at 2008 which is listed I've got with her
Sep 7 7,000
and the top venues are up there in thirty thousand
per person so the family fortune
going two hundred twenty thousand dollars in 89
now this this shows levels and living standards
better than any picture I'm gonna show you so take a look
but i wanna switch back to logs and this shows growth rates
better than the other picture does here your growth rate it is is
is is to
go growth a constant growth
comes out as a straight line here not as in been
and CC the US in the UK the top
arm and then you can see all these other countries are growing faster than
are two percent otherwise they win the gun from the bottom
to the top arm
and this difference year in in the hash marks
is a fifty-percent difference in your living standards
so the gap between say the US in the UK hears about
forty-percent in in the you can see the
here we've got the in the year
well city-states lemme
red line is Japan here are our
are a Singapore no Hong Kong and Singapore
here is taiwan and South Korea
and then here is your sister huge China
yeah and is it says the the city states are already up
there've been between the bad and the the UK in the US that there they made it
their rich
near gonna grow it the crashing 2 percent ever again years
are not talking for about a month a year are talking about a ten year period or
something
her yeah the taiwan
in in and
South Korea are pretty much to their but not quite
years China many many thousands of dollars poured
terms a living standards then
then any country on this picture but growing faster
than ever in country in this in this picture
the now back in this nineteen sixties
the miracle economy with Japan and everyone is tenacious was talking about
the Japan
Japanese is the wave of the future they're going to be the richest
they're going to bypass s a
and if you did so he in
here if you finna curve a growth rate curve
church to the China the 1960 and extrapolated
you get that picture that you people worry about
now P
them but
I hope
you can see it is important group
is growing fast its 2 percent drop
patient option
on
cheesy for translation circuit so so so this this Japanese merrick was in Ocean
City
at the expense %uh the US the US Code
huge benefits for from the prosperous japan but you know you can see the
Psalter going in but according this thing by nineteen eighty
the Japanese you gonna leave us in the dust but you can see what actually
happened the ailing you follow the red
solid richer and see the Japan
join the group of six successful economies
and only the only lever leavitt will move around within it
but they never gonna leaders in we don't know each other
in in the dust in the east in these rules
am there
so what's gonna happen in the rest the 21st century only
taking after 2008 I'll but I'll be I'll be faster cuz you're a specially when
you make these up instead looking at actual
David and so can we know when concern is can we keep this to pin is two percent
maintainable forever
for 1.85 you me who knows
rates as some people are pessimistic summer optimistic
here is joyful young Mozart weeping because
because he told his father that all the good music is already been written
for some people think all a good music is your been written down at Wells
he enters a technological change I'm
I'm with Mozart's father in
who it's going to be exciting is not the two percent maintenance maybe we won't
be too we want when a five yr 1
to a I don't know are but but what's gonna happen to
vast majority of people who are living way poorer than
then these leading countries so north again only focusing on China the only
really poor country 0
were showing pictures /a are now it's too late for first South Korean taiwan
to get rich they were there already rich are
so the only country this kid this that's gonna
grow out gain a lot the ones I've shown you
is mainland China are soulless take the lead the way the
the bad where love predicting will fit a curve to china's
the Chinese current growth rate index
see NXT in this will take it to Kors
for the growth rates I'll the advanced countries the US
down the UK %uh and there you see the 21st century
ended II aid I king
airing it get a say past 27 the case you can figure that out for yourself
here and now this is the same mistake we made in the sixties and seventies
talking about Japan
its then I like to use a little formula
which shares the Gautrain in your country
is equal to the leaders growth rate pollo to
time something in this time something
is the higher their the leading country is relative to your country
the faster the its gonna give you an added bonus to the poor you are the fast
you grow
this doesn't work for the charity Chad Mali level places where we
is gonna work for the country's is working for the for China
and then this state is it's some parameter
which I estimated estimated on on
on miracles that we've already seen here
so these two parameters as well this is my fader
two-thirds and in the stand ago three leaders is two percent
supply this ply their formula they gave you
she lost solving an equation I won't put you through
begin we we're starting by extrapolating need the year
the last decade have Chinese bro
but but we're applying it did to occur which takes into account the fact
to China gets richer they're gonna they're gonna were
they're going to slow down and they're never gonna
be the rest is in the dust is we don't leave each other
in the dust in the in this in this Muniz and I and World
home so this is on the honor leah is this a disappointment
I i don't wanna do unit but but incurs have the actual
lives improvement have lives in actual
people what this is is that in 2050
I'll your and
the chinese living standards will be about the same
as US living standards today
K so I i call at across the US those days ago to keep going to
are buddy if that really happens you
it's gonna be you know them well a major signal all these people
where the major improvements in large masses have people in
they're by far that is there ever been seen to assist this issue me a glorious
a a thing for China if they can pull it off early Tory talked about last year's
be a in and any theory it is not at the expense lol
are according life were above
love the level income in the countries that are already rich
a
so economic growth is not a zero-sum game are
the post-war recoveries in Europe in these miracles in other countries
have been hugely beneficial to the United States
are as trading partners are
and I can only is only wish that mainland China will which already
happening
he is is joining this in a tool that if interested us
so that we won hope for further coming century
is lists move on to Africa
and South Asia any other countries that having gotten on this
on this on this track I don't want this in all
sly picture I love it morning
and I'm include with this pope who were experiencing here
is are the final phases in some sense
only into the industrial revolution he go back to these two
she to the early 18th century
the fraction the the Oprah lies the fracture the world's population
there with that with European cell
and that was about 25 percent and the fraction dove
production in the world that was European s the black hair that was about
25 percent error
what does it mean he's a living standards for European people
in the living standards for European people we're we're
were roughly the same are and why not any movie that people are
rrrrr pretty much the economist you anyway
we think people are pretty much this is the same
no matter where where they're from with their ancestors her
in economically that was that was not in his distant with
know what happen is the industrial revolution took our
is is there for story it was a boom in the population if europeans
is where these you do you get rich is to have more kids
for a while but what really took off the is the sheer production
there that was produced by European and if you look at it
at yeah at 19:50 you that 75 percent
other total total production in the world which was done by Europeans as
opposed to twenty-five percent here
here here here and here and population
what was was sober 36
not know this is turned around is over these peaks are never
were those these feature artificial in some sense
lives this huge inequality between Europeans and nine europeans
it in we never emerge in Philly industry lucien
in here and it seems to me you can't can
the sistine so within ASEAN this issue reason:
is already happening in showing his picture will
military who is already starting to happen in the last for the 20 century
is we're returning word
the the population growth above 9 europeans it hasn't
surpass europeans gotten back issue
buddy you know me the nine-year his run faster than europeans
now there they'll have a turnaround a and slow down
to In Motion have in many countries but I know where this discourage going into
but what I do know I'll bet
are we r yeah I mean I'd live to see the whole century right my loss
I'll stay I'll stay as long as I can I
is I think that black line is your knee and up
meeting the there the
Purple Line that the relative standings
over European nine European people are going to get closer closer together
not because we're all falling back the some 1750 are living centers
are grown steadily at will be at 2 percent
or sell are but but the inequalities in the center
differences indifferent the countries
will will be reduced to something like the differences
we have within the club a wealthy countries
in Europe in in North America in japan today
okay tell I'm
I'll
them