1 00:00:00,20 --> 00:00:07,20 them 2 00:00:11,650 --> 00:00:15,150 are these 3 00:00:15,150 --> 00:00:17,670 well 4 00:00:17,670 --> 00:00:19,189 E 5 00:00:19,189 --> 00:00:21,939 %uh 6 00:00:21,939 --> 00:00:23,679 do 7 00:00:23,679 --> 00:00:26,909 I'm gonna take seriously this this the 8 00:00:26,910 --> 00:00:30,570 the title will give nations in the 21st century 9 00:00:30,570 --> 00:00:33,940 and enter and tell you what they arrested the 21st century 10 00:00:33,940 --> 00:00:39,379 is gonna look like a so the place to start is with the 11 00:00:39,379 --> 00:00:44,720 second half for the for the 20th century which was a remarkable 12 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:48,790 time for 44 economics are 13 00:00:48,790 --> 00:00:53,239 in the main event today that 50-year period were 14 00:00:53,239 --> 00:00:57,939 the continue steady growth in the US and the UK which is where the Industrial 15 00:00:57,939 --> 00:00:59,220 Revolution began 16 00:00:59,220 --> 00:01:05,449 the and the growth miracles after the war 17 00:01:05,449 --> 00:01:08,630 the in Germany Japan and southern Europe 18 00:01:08,630 --> 00:01:13,100 will show you pictures second in in the third inning we didn't 19 00:01:13,100 --> 00:01:16,809 increasingly more I'm important to what's happening in the current 20 00:01:16,810 --> 00:01:21,850 century is that in the fifties and sixties really into the European 21 00:01:21,850 --> 00:01:23,169 colonial age 22 00:01:23,170 --> 00:01:27,250 so-so so its as usual billion two people who were 23 00:01:27,250 --> 00:01:30,370 bed basically a nine European 24 00:01:30,370 --> 00:01:34,210 people's governing governed by European 25 00:01:34,210 --> 00:01:37,779 colonialists be became 26 00:01:37,780 --> 00:01:43,440 three countries the I'm free from the europeans are free from their own their 27 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:44,620 leaders necessarily 28 00:01:44,620 --> 00:01:48,229 the initiation numbers based on GDP 29 00:01:48,229 --> 00:01:51,260 in in various parts of the world they're all do the 30 00:01:51,260 --> 00:01:54,860 year Lee to economic historian guess medicine 31 00:01:54,860 --> 00:02:00,270 room you should be curio 32 00:02:00,270 --> 00:02:03,720 were im over asians 33 00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:08,689 a really successful countries up and I can put a little went in there too with 34 00:02:08,689 --> 00:02:08,978 with 35 00:02:08,979 --> 00:02:13,189 you've already got too many too many curves are on this thing 36 00:02:13,189 --> 00:02:16,290 see they would put its own to Denmark in 37 00:02:16,290 --> 00:02:19,909 Finland in getting my picture beginning you know well you 38 00:02:19,909 --> 00:02:24,19 you get to you the US the UK were you you know who you are 39 00:02:24,19 --> 00:02:28,909 in world the all the europeans did the bottom 40 00:02:28,909 --> 00:02:32,840 here which BB came curious about 41 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:37,950 you get only he wrote this poem not always going to be talking about levels 42 00:02:37,950 --> 00:02:41,988 week you're about to enter zip you human meal 43 00:02:41,989 --> 00:02:46,810 living standards we care about their about him the production per person 44 00:02:46,810 --> 00:02:51,849 in a society is the in growth rate seriously because they keep you 45 00:02:51,849 --> 00:02:55,40 from one level production per person to another 46 00:02:55,40 --> 00:02:58,319 that Siri its surety children 47 00:02:58,319 --> 00:03:01,608 line and yeah 48 00:03:01,609 --> 00:03:05,799 the period me seventy you little 49 00:03:05,799 --> 00:03:10,109 you years-long companies you up soon could be 50 00:03:10,109 --> 00:03:17,109 would me 51 00:03:17,270 --> 00:03:19,960 and 52 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:22,990 some countries share be there are there other services 53 00:03:22,990 --> 00:03:26,690 selling bad to me okay has earned 54 00:03:26,690 --> 00:03:31,859 I'll talk to ya whisper some some some countries did did did did better than 55 00:03:31,860 --> 00:03:32,540 others 56 00:03:32,540 --> 00:03:36,750 are additional real compression here wasn't very much 57 00:03:36,750 --> 00:03:40,640 doing a lot of barriers to trade in these countries alarm for 58 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:43,899 you know into a liberal are 59 00:03:43,900 --> 00:03:48,430 policies the only carrier is really gaining impressively issued during this 60 00:03:48,430 --> 00:03:49,920 period is Japan 61 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:52,950 in japan this is a period where the rest in the Asia 62 00:03:52,950 --> 00:03:56,649 was not growing at all so all this moving from China 63 00:03:56,650 --> 00:04:01,820 and even from Japan's leading arrested Asia and and and not to mention Africa 64 00:04:01,820 --> 00:04:02,380 the high 65 00:04:02,380 --> 00:04:06,150 then you see the year the %um 66 00:04:06,150 --> 00:04:12,000 blasted World War or two and it's easy to see who the losers in who the winners 67 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:12,489 are 68 00:04:12,489 --> 00:04:15,730 are in there what happened afterwards 69 00:04:15,730 --> 00:04:19,659 is this it can very rapid 70 00:04:19,660 --> 00:04:23,880 compression %uh the %uh the 71 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:28,690 the losers in the war where the southern Europeans we have always been 72 00:04:28,690 --> 00:04:32,919 had always been backward relative to the rest if your there they all rapidly 73 00:04:32,919 --> 00:04:34,150 converge to 74 00:04:34,150 --> 00:04:37,789 something you look like you're all going to converge to the blacker which is the 75 00:04:37,790 --> 00:04:38,780 United States 76 00:04:38,780 --> 00:04:42,900 but the but they didn't quite do there there's a discernible 77 00:04:42,900 --> 00:04:47,280 gap about forty percent between the best to the successful countries 78 00:04:47,280 --> 00:04:52,119 a here here that most productive nursery the best 79 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:56,180 in the others for but the 80 00:04:56,180 --> 00:05:00,910 in between 1950 1970 here this tremendous compression 81 00:05:00,910 --> 00:05:05,410 in who why did this happen a huge factor was just 82 00:05:05,410 --> 00:05:11,590 freedom democracy another factor which free trade the European Common Market 83 00:05:11,590 --> 00:05:16,369 with a fabulous see huge improvement over where Europe which ran in the first 84 00:05:16,370 --> 00:05:17,530 part of this century 85 00:05:17,530 --> 00:05:20,919 and it was not it was not a a 86 00:05:20,919 --> 00:05:25,440 alliance against North Americans who were Japanese 87 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:28,719 they didn't raised fears against us either so the whole 88 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:32,760 year every country in this movie here is in a single 89 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:36,50 basically free trade zone in in 90 00:05:36,50 --> 00:05:39,720 him near all sure more less capitalist economies 91 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:43,320 which is assisting is a purely capitalist economy there 92 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:46,630 he is he would happen did this happen at the expense 93 00:05:46,630 --> 00:05:50,110 I'll love the UK in the US 94 00:05:50,110 --> 00:05:54,120 not at all we need to just parallel the growth rate it's 95 00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:57,919 I call a two percent but IDs RR 96 00:05:57,919 --> 00:06:03,430 are go for 1.85 if you like ruling this trend growth is shared by all the 97 00:06:03,430 --> 00:06:04,710 successful economies 98 00:06:04,710 --> 00:06:11,710 something like it on as your way forget within the next like 99 00:06:13,500 --> 00:06:19,720 in okay yeah so this this this 2 percent growth rate 100 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:22,960 are we started out as a 101 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:26,979 english-speaking thing centuries ago 102 00:06:26,979 --> 00:06:30,229 is is now shared by more and more countries and more and more countries 103 00:06:30,229 --> 00:06:31,140 join an 104 00:06:31,140 --> 00:06:34,450 in a nor'easter 105 00:06:34,450 --> 00:06:38,979 latter can you grown faster than we have Barclays have never grown 106 00:06:38,979 --> 00:06:44,39 sustained refashion 2 percent so it kinda numbers you're seeing a huge we've 107 00:06:44,39 --> 00:06:46,50 seen Asia nursing now in China 108 00:06:46,50 --> 00:06:49,460 there's nothing like that ever happened in the UK in the United States in 109 00:06:49,460 --> 00:06:51,130 nothing like that ever will happen 110 00:06:51,130 --> 00:06:54,169 my swing you know destroy our economy and lead 111 00:06:54,169 --> 00:07:00,260 come back up are soon return 112 00:07:00,260 --> 00:07:05,550 our to that was mostly European picture to show you 113 00:07:05,550 --> 00:07:09,669 let's have a look at Asia hey this is Jade 114 00:07:09,669 --> 00:07:13,460 up I'm I'm I like a log logarithms 115 00:07:13,460 --> 00:07:17,719 with this is a a natural imitated on this tax issue God 116 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:21,599 a are this is five thousand 117 00:07:21,599 --> 00:07:25,180 are US in nineteen ninety dollars 118 00:07:25,180 --> 00:07:29,200 is this where this five means yeah that's the the the a large 119 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:34,210 GDP per person so the family of four's gonna be four times at 120 00:07:34,210 --> 00:07:40,219 analysts we're and here and he any course this isn't a calm pay this is 121 00:07:40,220 --> 00:07:45,490 total production so the government stake in large parts in every country and 122 00:07:45,490 --> 00:07:47,250 larger in some than others 123 00:07:47,250 --> 00:07:51,60 so here we begin begin with China 124 00:07:51,60 --> 00:07:55,000 other ed the mainland Chinese here 125 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:58,110 this should be like five hundred foreigner dollars 126 00:07:58,110 --> 00:08:01,229 would be for person and we're gonna end up 127 00:08:01,229 --> 00:08:06,250 at 2008 which is listed I've got with her 128 00:08:06,250 --> 00:08:09,440 Sep 7 7,000 129 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:12,840 and the top venues are up there in thirty thousand 130 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:16,400 per person so the family fortune 131 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:21,469 going two hundred twenty thousand dollars in 89 132 00:08:21,470 --> 00:08:27,110 now this this shows levels and living standards 133 00:08:27,110 --> 00:08:31,630 better than any picture I'm gonna show you so take a look 134 00:08:31,630 --> 00:08:36,469 but i wanna switch back to logs and this shows growth rates 135 00:08:36,469 --> 00:08:41,10 better than the other picture does here your growth rate it is is 136 00:08:41,10 --> 00:08:45,959 is is to 137 00:08:45,959 --> 00:08:49,150 go growth a constant growth 138 00:08:49,150 --> 00:08:53,170 comes out as a straight line here not as in been 139 00:08:53,170 --> 00:08:57,260 and CC the US in the UK the top 140 00:08:57,260 --> 00:09:01,980 arm and then you can see all these other countries are growing faster than 141 00:09:01,980 --> 00:09:05,410 are two percent otherwise they win the gun from the bottom 142 00:09:05,410 --> 00:09:08,410 to the top arm 143 00:09:08,410 --> 00:09:11,829 and this difference year in in the hash marks 144 00:09:11,829 --> 00:09:16,380 is a fifty-percent difference in your living standards 145 00:09:16,380 --> 00:09:20,689 so the gap between say the US in the UK hears about 146 00:09:20,690 --> 00:09:24,600 forty-percent in in the you can see the 147 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:28,780 here we've got the in the year 148 00:09:28,780 --> 00:09:31,939 well city-states lemme 149 00:09:31,940 --> 00:09:35,79 red line is Japan here are our 150 00:09:35,79 --> 00:09:38,849 are a Singapore no Hong Kong and Singapore 151 00:09:38,850 --> 00:09:44,000 here is taiwan and South Korea 152 00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:47,410 and then here is your sister huge China 153 00:09:47,410 --> 00:09:51,880 yeah and is it says the the city states are already up 154 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:56,290 there've been between the bad and the the UK in the US that there they made it 155 00:09:56,290 --> 00:09:57,490 their rich 156 00:09:57,490 --> 00:10:02,40 near gonna grow it the crashing 2 percent ever again years 157 00:10:02,40 --> 00:10:05,969 are not talking for about a month a year are talking about a ten year period or 158 00:10:05,970 --> 00:10:06,850 something 159 00:10:06,850 --> 00:10:09,959 her yeah the taiwan 160 00:10:09,959 --> 00:10:13,670 in in and 161 00:10:13,670 --> 00:10:17,979 South Korea are pretty much to their but not quite 162 00:10:17,980 --> 00:10:22,560 years China many many thousands of dollars poured 163 00:10:22,560 --> 00:10:25,709 terms a living standards then 164 00:10:25,709 --> 00:10:29,459 then any country on this picture but growing faster 165 00:10:29,459 --> 00:10:34,160 than ever in country in this in this picture 166 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:37,870 the now back in this nineteen sixties 167 00:10:37,870 --> 00:10:43,120 the miracle economy with Japan and everyone is tenacious was talking about 168 00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:44,190 the Japan 169 00:10:44,190 --> 00:10:47,540 Japanese is the wave of the future they're going to be the richest 170 00:10:47,540 --> 00:10:50,699 they're going to bypass s a 171 00:10:50,699 --> 00:10:53,930 and if you did so he in 172 00:10:53,930 --> 00:10:58,780 here if you finna curve a growth rate curve 173 00:10:58,780 --> 00:11:03,60 church to the China the 1960 and extrapolated 174 00:11:03,60 --> 00:11:07,400 you get that picture that you people worry about 175 00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:13,520 now P 176 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:17,380 them but 177 00:11:17,380 --> 00:11:22,310 I hope 178 00:11:22,310 --> 00:11:26,890 you can see it is important group 179 00:11:26,890 --> 00:11:31,550 is growing fast its 2 percent drop 180 00:11:31,550 --> 00:11:36,410 patient option 181 00:11:36,410 --> 00:11:40,930 on 182 00:11:40,930 --> 00:11:47,930 cheesy for translation circuit so so so this this Japanese merrick was in Ocean 183 00:11:50,339 --> 00:11:50,740 City 184 00:11:50,740 --> 00:11:55,209 at the expense %uh the US the US Code 185 00:11:55,209 --> 00:11:59,550 huge benefits for from the prosperous japan but you know you can see the 186 00:11:59,550 --> 00:12:02,609 Psalter going in but according this thing by nineteen eighty 187 00:12:02,610 --> 00:12:06,790 the Japanese you gonna leave us in the dust but you can see what actually 188 00:12:06,790 --> 00:12:08,899 happened the ailing you follow the red 189 00:12:08,899 --> 00:12:12,279 solid richer and see the Japan 190 00:12:12,279 --> 00:12:16,110 join the group of six successful economies 191 00:12:16,110 --> 00:12:20,350 and only the only lever leavitt will move around within it 192 00:12:20,350 --> 00:12:24,769 but they never gonna leaders in we don't know each other 193 00:12:24,769 --> 00:12:29,199 in in the dust in the east in these rules 194 00:12:29,199 --> 00:12:35,40 am there 195 00:12:35,40 --> 00:12:40,240 so what's gonna happen in the rest the 21st century only 196 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:46,269 taking after 2008 I'll but I'll be I'll be faster cuz you're a specially when 197 00:12:46,269 --> 00:12:48,500 you make these up instead looking at actual 198 00:12:48,500 --> 00:12:54,79 David and so can we know when concern is can we keep this to pin is two percent 199 00:12:54,79 --> 00:12:55,609 maintainable forever 200 00:12:55,610 --> 00:12:59,70 for 1.85 you me who knows 201 00:12:59,70 --> 00:13:02,240 rates as some people are pessimistic summer optimistic 202 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:05,500 here is joyful young Mozart weeping because 203 00:13:05,500 --> 00:13:09,769 because he told his father that all the good music is already been written 204 00:13:09,769 --> 00:13:14,110 for some people think all a good music is your been written down at Wells 205 00:13:14,110 --> 00:13:17,579 he enters a technological change I'm 206 00:13:17,579 --> 00:13:21,130 I'm with Mozart's father in 207 00:13:21,130 --> 00:13:26,579 who it's going to be exciting is not the two percent maintenance maybe we won't 208 00:13:26,579 --> 00:13:29,170 be too we want when a five yr 1 209 00:13:29,170 --> 00:13:33,640 to a I don't know are but but what's gonna happen to 210 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:37,680 vast majority of people who are living way poorer than 211 00:13:37,680 --> 00:13:43,670 then these leading countries so north again only focusing on China the only 212 00:13:43,670 --> 00:13:44,769 really poor country 0 213 00:13:44,769 --> 00:13:51,160 were showing pictures /a are now it's too late for first South Korean taiwan 214 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:54,269 to get rich they were there already rich are 215 00:13:54,269 --> 00:13:57,310 so the only country this kid this that's gonna 216 00:13:57,310 --> 00:14:01,420 grow out gain a lot the ones I've shown you 217 00:14:01,420 --> 00:14:06,880 is mainland China are soulless take the lead the way the 218 00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:11,649 the bad where love predicting will fit a curve to china's 219 00:14:11,649 --> 00:14:15,680 the Chinese current growth rate index 220 00:14:15,680 --> 00:14:18,699 see NXT in this will take it to Kors 221 00:14:18,699 --> 00:14:22,880 for the growth rates I'll the advanced countries the US 222 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:27,79 down the UK %uh and there you see the 21st century 223 00:14:27,79 --> 00:14:30,160 ended II aid I king 224 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:35,360 airing it get a say past 27 the case you can figure that out for yourself 225 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:40,50 here and now this is the same mistake we made in the sixties and seventies 226 00:14:40,50 --> 00:14:41,689 talking about Japan 227 00:14:41,689 --> 00:14:47,410 its then I like to use a little formula 228 00:14:47,410 --> 00:14:50,699 which shares the Gautrain in your country 229 00:14:50,699 --> 00:14:54,959 is equal to the leaders growth rate pollo to 230 00:14:54,959 --> 00:14:58,739 time something in this time something 231 00:14:58,740 --> 00:15:02,910 is the higher their the leading country is relative to your country 232 00:15:02,910 --> 00:15:07,850 the faster the its gonna give you an added bonus to the poor you are the fast 233 00:15:07,850 --> 00:15:08,310 you grow 234 00:15:08,310 --> 00:15:12,339 this doesn't work for the charity Chad Mali level places where we 235 00:15:12,339 --> 00:15:15,829 is gonna work for the country's is working for the for China 236 00:15:15,829 --> 00:15:19,99 and then this state is it's some parameter 237 00:15:19,100 --> 00:15:22,240 which I estimated estimated on on 238 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:26,620 on miracles that we've already seen here 239 00:15:26,620 --> 00:15:30,000 so these two parameters as well this is my fader 240 00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:34,600 two-thirds and in the stand ago three leaders is two percent 241 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,930 supply this ply their formula they gave you 242 00:15:37,930 --> 00:15:42,430 she lost solving an equation I won't put you through 243 00:15:42,430 --> 00:15:46,130 begin we we're starting by extrapolating need the year 244 00:15:46,130 --> 00:15:49,319 the last decade have Chinese bro 245 00:15:49,319 --> 00:15:53,849 but but we're applying it did to occur which takes into account the fact 246 00:15:53,850 --> 00:15:57,490 to China gets richer they're gonna they're gonna were 247 00:15:57,490 --> 00:16:00,939 they're going to slow down and they're never gonna 248 00:16:00,939 --> 00:16:04,899 be the rest is in the dust is we don't leave each other 249 00:16:04,899 --> 00:16:08,390 in the dust in the in this in this Muniz and I and World 250 00:16:08,390 --> 00:16:14,550 home so this is on the honor leah is this a disappointment 251 00:16:14,550 --> 00:16:19,199 I i don't wanna do unit but but incurs have the actual 252 00:16:19,199 --> 00:16:22,709 lives improvement have lives in actual 253 00:16:22,709 --> 00:16:25,770 people what this is is that in 2050 254 00:16:25,770 --> 00:16:30,270 I'll your and 255 00:16:30,270 --> 00:16:33,740 the chinese living standards will be about the same 256 00:16:33,740 --> 00:16:36,959 as US living standards today 257 00:16:36,959 --> 00:16:41,800 K so I i call at across the US those days ago to keep going to 258 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:45,59 are buddy if that really happens you 259 00:16:45,59 --> 00:16:49,529 it's gonna be you know them well a major signal all these people 260 00:16:49,529 --> 00:16:54,410 where the major improvements in large masses have people in 261 00:16:54,410 --> 00:16:59,149 they're by far that is there ever been seen to assist this issue me a glorious 262 00:16:59,149 --> 00:17:05,309 a a thing for China if they can pull it off early Tory talked about last year's 263 00:17:05,309 --> 00:17:10,470 be a in and any theory it is not at the expense lol 264 00:17:10,470 --> 00:17:14,209 are according life were above 265 00:17:14,209 --> 00:17:19,329 love the level income in the countries that are already rich 266 00:17:19,329 --> 00:17:26,329 a 267 00:17:27,60 --> 00:17:30,879 so economic growth is not a zero-sum game are 268 00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:34,310 the post-war recoveries in Europe in these miracles in other countries 269 00:17:34,310 --> 00:17:37,690 have been hugely beneficial to the United States 270 00:17:37,690 --> 00:17:41,80 are as trading partners are 271 00:17:41,80 --> 00:17:46,820 and I can only is only wish that mainland China will which already 272 00:17:46,820 --> 00:17:47,600 happening 273 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:51,939 he is is joining this in a tool that if interested us 274 00:17:51,940 --> 00:17:55,470 so that we won hope for further coming century 275 00:17:55,470 --> 00:17:59,440 is lists move on to Africa 276 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:03,380 and South Asia any other countries that having gotten on this 277 00:18:03,380 --> 00:18:08,80 on this on this track I don't want this in all 278 00:18:08,80 --> 00:18:11,240 sly picture I love it morning 279 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:14,350 and I'm include with this pope who were experiencing here 280 00:18:14,350 --> 00:18:17,860 is are the final phases in some sense 281 00:18:17,860 --> 00:18:21,689 only into the industrial revolution he go back to these two 282 00:18:21,690 --> 00:18:25,60 she to the early 18th century 283 00:18:25,60 --> 00:18:29,850 the fraction the the Oprah lies the fracture the world's population 284 00:18:29,850 --> 00:18:33,639 there with that with European cell 285 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:37,90 and that was about 25 percent and the fraction dove 286 00:18:37,90 --> 00:18:41,870 production in the world that was European s the black hair that was about 287 00:18:41,870 --> 00:18:43,360 25 percent error 288 00:18:43,360 --> 00:18:47,30 what does it mean he's a living standards for European people 289 00:18:47,30 --> 00:18:50,910 in the living standards for European people we're we're 290 00:18:50,910 --> 00:18:55,640 were roughly the same are and why not any movie that people are 291 00:18:55,640 --> 00:19:00,420 rrrrr pretty much the economist you anyway 292 00:19:00,420 --> 00:19:03,550 we think people are pretty much this is the same 293 00:19:03,550 --> 00:19:06,889 no matter where where they're from with their ancestors her 294 00:19:06,890 --> 00:19:11,660 in economically that was that was not in his distant with 295 00:19:11,660 --> 00:19:15,300 know what happen is the industrial revolution took our 296 00:19:15,300 --> 00:19:20,200 is is there for story it was a boom in the population if europeans 297 00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:23,710 is where these you do you get rich is to have more kids 298 00:19:23,710 --> 00:19:28,80 for a while but what really took off the is the sheer production 299 00:19:28,80 --> 00:19:32,199 there that was produced by European and if you look at it 300 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:36,970 at yeah at 19:50 you that 75 percent 301 00:19:36,970 --> 00:19:41,340 other total total production in the world which was done by Europeans as 302 00:19:41,340 --> 00:19:43,90 opposed to twenty-five percent here 303 00:19:43,90 --> 00:19:46,159 here here here and here and population 304 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:49,250 what was was sober 36 305 00:19:49,250 --> 00:19:53,880 not know this is turned around is over these peaks are never 306 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:57,960 were those these feature artificial in some sense 307 00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:01,780 lives this huge inequality between Europeans and nine europeans 308 00:20:01,780 --> 00:20:05,800 it in we never emerge in Philly industry lucien 309 00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:09,178 in here and it seems to me you can't can 310 00:20:09,179 --> 00:20:12,830 the sistine so within ASEAN this issue reason: 311 00:20:12,830 --> 00:20:16,189 is already happening in showing his picture will 312 00:20:16,190 --> 00:20:20,90 military who is already starting to happen in the last for the 20 century 313 00:20:20,90 --> 00:20:23,360 is we're returning word 314 00:20:23,360 --> 00:20:28,330 the the population growth above 9 europeans it hasn't 315 00:20:28,330 --> 00:20:32,330 surpass europeans gotten back issue 316 00:20:32,330 --> 00:20:36,889 buddy you know me the nine-year his run faster than europeans 317 00:20:36,890 --> 00:20:40,429 now there they'll have a turnaround a and slow down 318 00:20:40,429 --> 00:20:45,710 to In Motion have in many countries but I know where this discourage going into 319 00:20:45,710 --> 00:20:48,950 but what I do know I'll bet 320 00:20:48,950 --> 00:20:54,140 are we r yeah I mean I'd live to see the whole century right my loss 321 00:20:54,140 --> 00:20:57,380 I'll stay I'll stay as long as I can I 322 00:20:57,380 --> 00:21:01,830 is I think that black line is your knee and up 323 00:21:01,830 --> 00:21:05,870 meeting the there the 324 00:21:05,870 --> 00:21:09,000 Purple Line that the relative standings 325 00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:13,740 over European nine European people are going to get closer closer together 326 00:21:13,740 --> 00:21:18,540 not because we're all falling back the some 1750 are living centers 327 00:21:18,540 --> 00:21:21,920 are grown steadily at will be at 2 percent 328 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:26,330 or sell are but but the inequalities in the center 329 00:21:26,330 --> 00:21:29,870 differences indifferent the countries 330 00:21:29,870 --> 00:21:33,60 will will be reduced to something like the differences 331 00:21:33,60 --> 00:21:36,139 we have within the club a wealthy countries 332 00:21:36,140 --> 00:21:40,270 in Europe in in North America in japan today 333 00:21:40,270 --> 00:21:47,270 okay tell I'm 334 00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:59,870 I'll 335 00:21:59,870 --> 00:22:04,780 them